- Speaking to myself: holy fuck, what the hell is he doing?
- Thinking to myself: that's a gutsy call... fuck Peyton Manning, we're going for it.
I'm in the for-camp. I was chatting with my friend while the game was still going. Quickly throwing out these percentages on the top of my head:
- Prob of converting 4th down: 50%
- Prob of Colts scoring 7 from the 30 yard line: 90%
- Prob of Colts scoring 7 for their own 30 yard line: 70%
Of course you can poke holes. The biggest argument that the anti-decision camp make is that you have to trust your defense to stop the Colts. Basically, they say the 70% is lower. Okay, let's examine: Peyton Manning just completed a 2 minute 80 yard touchdown drive (after a suspect pass interference call). He also has the 2 minute warning and a Colts timeout to use. If you're pegging his prob of success to be lower than 55%, I think you are greatly underestimating the QB. But hey, that's just me!
I think Steve Levitt says it best: it's a principle-agent problem with coaches. The probabilities are in the teams favor, but most coaches are adverse to taking risky decisions that are game changing.